Although the unemployment rate is noisy month-to-month, we can use the graph and formula from Unemployment and Net Jobs to guess when the unemployment rate will reach 10%. This graph from that previous posts shows the quarterly change in net jobs (on the x-axis) as a percentage of the civilian workforce, and the change in the unemployment rate on the y-axis. The data is for the last 40 years: 1969 through Q2 2009. Click on graph for larger image in new window. The Red squares are for 2008, and for the first two quarters of 2009. The U-3 headline unemployment rate for August was reported at 9.7% (this is actually rounded up from 9.66%). If net job losses average over 200 thousand per month, the unemployment rate will probably hit 10% in October. If net job losses average 100 to 200 thousand per month, the unemployment rate will probably reach 10% in November. With 50 thousand net job losses per month, it will probably take until December. And if the economy averages zero net job losses per month, the unemployment rate will probably hit 10% in January or so.

Read more here – When Will the Unemployment Rate hit 10%?