Roubini Global Economics – Holiday Season Kick-off: North America and Europe Retail Sales
United States Roughly one year ago, around the Thanksgiving festivities, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that the U.S. recession started in December 2007. One year later, though the U.S. economy is in recovery mode, retailers are approaching the holiday season—which accounts for slightly less than one fifth of yearly U.S. retail sales —with some concern. A sharp collapse in U.S. consumer spending since mid-2008 led to a particularly dismal holiday retail season in 2008. As per U.S. Census Bureau estimates, core retail sales (which exclude autos, gasoline and building supplies) fell 1.1% y/y during November and December 2008, compared to an average 4.6% y/y increase in holiday season sales over the past decade. Total retail sales suffered a larger collapse, falling 9.5% y/y.
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