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New Monthly Roubini Column for Project Syndicate

For the last I year I have been writing – on alternate months – a column for Project Syndicate (a syndication service that published such columns in hundreds of newspapers around the world): we alternated one month Bob Shiller and the other month myself. Now this column has become monthly – and titled “ After the Storm ” – with myself writing a column every month. My latest column was written in about a month ago in mid-June when asset markets – equities, credit and commodities – were still bubbly and rallying as they had been since March 9 th . I pointed out in that column that markets had moved up too fast too soon relative to market fundamentals and that a significant correction of this bear market rally was likely to occur soon as the alleged green shoots would likely to turn out into yellow weeds. Since then US and global equity markets – including in emerging market economies – have started to head south; oil and other commodity prices have started to fall; credit spreads have started to widen again; and emerging markets equity markets have corrected more than those of advanced economies. Indeed the excessive optimism about spring green shoots have shown them to be mostly summer yellow weeds that may actually turn into brown manure by late 2010 after a minor economic recovery in the first half of 2010 . Indeed, the June US employment report last week has brought back a reality check after the misplaced euphoria of the second quarter. For those of you who missed this column a month ago here it is in full text : Financial Gain, Economic Pain June 15 th , 2001 NEW YORK – In the past three months, global asset prices have rebounded sharply: stock prices have increased by more than 30% in advanced economies, and by much more in most emerging markets. Prices of commodities – oil, energy, and minerals – have soared; corporate credit spreads (the difference between the yield of corporate and government bonds) have narrowed dramatically, as government-bond yields have increased sharply; volatility (the “fear gauge”) has fallen; and the dollar has weakened, as demand for safe dollar assets has abated

Read more here – New Monthly Roubini Column for Project Syndicate

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