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The evolution of the United States’ external balance sheet in the last decade (wonky)

The evolution of the United States’ external balance sheet in the last decade (wonky)

On Friday I tried to show why the US net international investment position deteriorated in 2008 – and also why it didn’t deteriorate in the previous years. Even after the market and currency gains of the past evaporated in 2008, … Read More

Near-record growth in the custodial holdings at the Fed; ongoing angst about the dollar’s role as a reserve currency …

Near-record growth in the custodial holdings at the Fed; ongoing angst about the dollar’s role as a reserve currency …

Central banks haven’t lost their appetite for Treasuries. At least not shorter-dated notes. John Jansen noted before yesterday’s 2-year auction “the central banks love that sector [of the curve].” And the auction result certainly didn’t give him cause to backtrack. … Read More

Where is the spillover? China’s stimulus isn’t doing much to support Japanese demand

Where is the spillover?  China’s stimulus isn’t doing much to support Japanese demand

Japan’s exports to China are still way down on a y/y basis in May, despite China’s stimulus. Shipments to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, fell 29.7 percent, more than April’s 25.9 percent. Exports to Asia slid 35.5 percent from 33.4 … Read More

Yes Virginia, there was an international financial crisis in 2007 and 2008

Yes Virginia, there was an international financial crisis in 2007 and 2008

Now that the markets have lost a bit of their froth, it seems fitting to note just how sharply trade — and private financial flows — have contracted over the past year. The US q1 balance of payments data is … Read More

The good and bad news in the World Bank’s China Quarterly

The good and bad news in the World Bank’s China Quarterly

The good news in the latest World Bank China Quarterly : One. China is growing, thanks to China’s government. The World Bank estimates that the government’s policy response will account for about 6 percentage points of China’s 7.2% forecast growth … Read More

I am pretty sure China didn’t sell Treasuries in April (or May, for that matter)

I am pretty sure China didn’t sell Treasuries in April (or May, for that matter)

The fall in China’s recorded Treasury holdings in April has attracted a fair amount of attention . Too much, in my view. Best that I can tell, China shifted from bills to short-dated notes in April rather than actually reducing … Read More

Today’s balance of payments release was overshadowed …

Today’s balance of payments release was overshadowed …

Events in Iran (rightly) dominate the headlines, along with the Obama Administration’s plans to revamp the United States’ system of financial regulation. And it doesn’t take much to overshadow the release of the United States’ balance of payments data , … Read More

Read Brender and Pisani’s “Globalised finance and its collapse”

Read Brender and Pisani’s “Globalised finance and its collapse”

I highly recommend Anton Brender and Florence Pisani’s recent monograph, “ Globalized finance and its collapse .” In a lot of ways, it is something that I wish I could have written. I don’t agree with every detail, but in … Read More