On Friday I tried to show why the US net international investment position deteriorated in 2008 – and also why it didn’t deteriorate in the previous years. Even after the market and currency gains of the past evaporated in 2008, … Read More

Central banks haven’t lost their appetite for Treasuries. At least not shorter-dated notes. John Jansen noted before yesterday’s 2-year auction “the central banks love that sector [of the curve].” And the auction result certainly didn’t give him cause to backtrack. … Read More

Japan’s exports to China are still way down on a y/y basis in May, despite China’s stimulus. Shipments to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, fell 29.7 percent, more than April’s 25.9 percent. Exports to Asia slid 35.5 percent from 33.4 … Read More

Now that the markets have lost a bit of their froth, it seems fitting to note just how sharply trade — and private financial flows — have contracted over the past year. The US q1 balance of payments data is … Read More

The good news in the latest World Bank China Quarterly : One. China is growing, thanks to China’s government. The World Bank estimates that the government’s policy response will account for about 6 percentage points of China’s 7.2% forecast growth … Read More

The fall in China’s recorded Treasury holdings in April has attracted a fair amount of attention . Too much, in my view. Best that I can tell, China shifted from bills to short-dated notes in April rather than actually reducing … Read More

Events in Iran (rightly) dominate the headlines, along with the Obama Administration’s plans to revamp the United States’ system of financial regulation. And it doesn’t take much to overshadow the release of the United States’ balance of payments data , … Read More

I highly recommend Anton Brender and Florence Pisani’s recent monograph, “ Globalized finance and its collapse .” In a lot of ways, it is something that I wish I could have written. I don’t agree with every detail, but in … Read More