Lately, I’ve been thinking a lot about the kind of advice that I would give high school graduates. Two children that I watched grow up are going to graduate this coming May. What could I possibly tell them that would … Read More

This will be my last blog post, at least for the foreseeable future. I have accepted a new job , one that will require a certain level of discretion. I am excited by its challenges: ‘Balanced and sustainable” growth is … Read More

I have recently been teaching my 6-year-old son about misnomers. A misnomer is, of course, something that is inappropriately named. It started with my little boy asking why “babysitting” is called as such when he is most definitely not a … Read More

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2009 (Advance) Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent … Read More

From San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen: Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Community Banks . A few excerpts: [T]he normal dynamics of the business cycle are turning more favorable. Some sectors are poised to rebound simply because they have … Read More

Case-Shiller released the May house price index this morning, and most news reports focused on the small increase, not seasonally adjusted (NSA), from April to May. As I noted earlier, the seasonally adjusted (SA) data showed a small price decline … Read More

Most reporting on the May trade data tried to fit it into the “green shoots” meta-narrative, thanks to the small uptick in exports. Never mind that total exports were about equal to their level in March even after the May … Read More

Just for information purposes, the following graph is from Northern Trust . What was the high of the unemployment rate in the Great Depression? The civilian unemployment rate was around 25% during several months of 1932-1933 Click on graph for … Read More

Greetings from RGE Monitor! The first half of 2009 has ended and we at RGE Monitor are in the process of updating our quarterly Global Economic Outlook.  Below you will find a preview of our views on the short-to-medium term … Read More

For the last I year I have been writing – on alternate months – a column for Project Syndicate (a syndication service that published such columns in hundreds of newspapers around the world): we alternated one month Bob Shiller and … Read More