FAQ: How can the unemployment rate fall if the economy is losing net jobs, especially since the population is growing? This data comes from two separate surveys. The unemployment Rate comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS: commonly called the … Read More

First, lifted from the comments on Corus: “Too toxic to fail.” by Rob Dawg On shadow inventory from Reuters: “Shadow” inventory lurks over U.S. housing recovery (ht Denny) [A] massive supply of unsold homes is waiting in the wings and … Read More

There is a common argument that the US depends more on China now than before because the US needs to issue so many Treasury bonds to finance its fiscal deficit. I disagree, for two reasons: First, the trade deficit is … Read More

The goods news: the US trade deficit has shrunk. On a rolling 12m basis the trade deficit is down to around $500 billion, and the data from the last few months suggests that it should fall even further. The bad … Read More

CRM in and of itself is not a complicated concept.  We deepen relationships with our clients and sphere of influence over time, identifying selling opportunities in the process. Ask any sales trainer and they’ll tell you that the key to … Read More

Central banks haven’t lost their appetite for Treasuries. At least not shorter-dated notes. John Jansen noted before yesterday’s 2-year auction “the central banks love that sector [of the curve].” And the auction result certainly didn’t give him cause to backtrack. … Read More

The Mortgage Bankers Association today said its index of mortgage application volume rose 6% last week vs. two weeks ago and 17.2% vs. the same period a year ago. On a week-to-week basis the refinance index rose 5.9% and the … Read More

Japan’s exports to China are still way down on a y/y basis in May, despite China’s stimulus. Shipments to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, fell 29.7 percent, more than April’s 25.9 percent. Exports to Asia slid 35.5 percent from 33.4 … Read More

Now that the markets have lost a bit of their froth, it seems fitting to note just how sharply trade — and private financial flows — have contracted over the past year. The US q1 balance of payments data is … Read More