My forecast is for U.S. economic growth to slow in the 2nd half (a sluggish and choppy recovery), but not slide into recession. However a recession is a possibility, and the following describes how NBER differentiates between a “double dip” and a new recession. The National Bureau of Economic…
From Google Trends, search trend on ” double dip “… It appears the 2nd half slowdown is here, but I think the U.S. will avoid a technical “double-dip” recession. As I noted last week, for the unemployed and marginally employed, and for many other Americans suffering with too much debt…
A two-in-one post … PMI at 56.2% in June down from 59.7% in May. From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2010 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the 11th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 14th consecutive…
Calling the beginning or end of a recession takes time. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) waits until the data is revised, and if the recovery is sluggish, this process can take from 18 months to two years or longer. In addition, if the economy slides into recession again,…
Business Cycle Dating Committee statement : The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met at the organization’s headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on April 8, 2010. The committee reviewed the most recent data for all indicators relevant to the determination of a possible date of the…
Despite some reports that suggest the housing crisis may be hitting bottom, foreclosures so far represent the “tip of the iceberg,” real estate analyst, investor and lender Bruce Norris says. Norris told hundreds of investors attending a seminar he held in Costa Mesa this past weekend that numbers indicating the appearance…
First, a nice mention in Newsweek (thank you): The Financial Meltdown in Words (see slide 4 for a quote from Feb 2005, ht Matthew, Eric) On the end of the recession, from Bloomberg: Bernanke Says U.S. Recession ‘Very Likely’ Has Ended “Even though from a technical perspective the recession is…
From the WSJ: Recession Finally Hits Down on the Farm (ht Bob_in_MA) The Agriculture Department forecast Thursday that U.S. farm profits will fall 38% this year, indicating that the slump is taking hold in rural America. … The Agriculture Department said it expects net farm income — a widely followed…
A little history from Paul Kasriel, Chief Economist at Northern Trust: The Rhyming of History – Bloomberg and the RFC? On November 7, 2008, Bloomberg LP sued the Federal Reserve Board under terms of the Freedom of Information Act to obtain the names of borrowers of funds from the Federal…
From The Times: City taken by surprise as Bank of England’s figures herald end of recession Britain has emerged from the worst recession since the Second World War, new Bank of England figures suggested yesterday … Detailed forecasts published by the Bank showed that gross domestic product (GDP) will rise…