More from the supplemental GDP tables released yesterday … Residential investment (RI), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker’s commissions, and a few minor categories. Back in Q4 2008 – for the first time ever – investment in home…

An update: the following graph shows the decline in real GDP (quarterly) from the previous peak since 1947. GDP is now 3.9% below the recent peak. In terms of declines in real GDP, the current recession is the worst since quarterly records have been kept (starting in 1947). Note: This…

The big question of the week was: “Are house prices near the bottom?” My feeling has been that house prices are probably close to the bottom in the lower priced bubble areas with heavy foreclosure activity (Lawler’s ” de-stickification “). Inventories are very low in many of these areas, and…

NOTE: The seasonally adjusted weekly claims numbers is being impacted by the layoffs in the automobile industry. Usually auto companies cut back production in the summer, and the numbers are adjusted for that pattern – but this year the companies cut back much earlier. This distortion appears much smaller this…

This is the second consecutive month were vehicles miles driven were flat, or slightly above, the comparable month in 2008 (May 2009 compared to the May 2008). The Dept of Transportation reports on U.S. Traffic Volume Trends : Travel on all roads and streets changed by +0.1% (0.2 billion vehicle…

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over ‘this year’ and that I have ‘improved’ my economic outlook. Despite those reports – however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously . If anything…

From RealtyTrac : RealtyTrac … today released its Midyear 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows a total of 1,905,723 foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — were reported on 1,528,364 U.S. properties in the first six months of 2009, a 9 percent increase…

NOTE: The seasonally adjusted weekly claims numbers are being impacted by the layoffs in the automobile industry and other manufacturing sectors. Usually companies cut back production in the summer, and the numbers are adjusted for that pattern – but this year the companies cut back much earlier. This distortion is…

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales are off 9.6% from June 2008 (retail ex food services decreased 10.3%). Excluding autos and gas, retail sales fell again in June. The following graph shows the year-over-year change in nominal and real retail…

Note: earlier Employment post: Employment Report: 467K Jobs Lost, 9.5% Unemployment Rate . The earlier post includes a comparison to previous recessions. Stress Test Scenarios Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the unemployment rate compared to the stress test economic scenarios on a quarterly…