From Paul Krugman in the NY Times: The Real Story … When Mr. Obama first proposed $800 billion in fiscal stimulus, there were two groups of critics. Both argued that unemployment would stay high — but for very different reasons. One group — the group that got almost all the…

A couple of quotes from Kathleen Pender at the San Francisco Chronicle: Little support for new home-buyer tax credit “We are not advocating another one. We think it’s important for the market to have time to recover on its own,” says Walter Molony, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors.…

Hotel occupancy is one of several industry specific indicators I follow … From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: Chain scales report weekly increases Overall, the industry’s occupancy increased 10.6% to 60.1%, ADR rose 2.4% to US$96.50, and revenue per available room increased 13.2% to US$57.98. The following graph shows the four week moving…

Here is a graph from the Council of Foreign Relations blog: Greek Debt Crisis – Apocalypse Later Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph from Paul Swartz at the CFR shows the default probabilities on three different dates: On April 30th, no European plan was yet…

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Rise The Pending Home Sales Index … rose 5.2 percent to 79.4 based on contracts signed in July from a downwardly revised 75.5 in June, but remains 19.1 percent below July 2009 when it was 98.1. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which…

Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 11.47 million SAAR in August. That is down 18.9% from August 2009 (cash-for-clunkers), and down 0.5% from the July sales rate. Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the historical light vehicle…

The Institute for Supply Management reported this morning that the PMI increased to 56.3 from 55.5 in July. Expectations were for a decrease to 53.0. Click on graph for larger image in new window. Here is an update to the graph showing the regional Fed manufacturing surveys and the ISM…

Note: Sales in August 2009 were boosted by “Cash-for-clunkers”. From MarketWatch: GM August U.S. sales down 24.9% to 185,176 units General Motors Co. said Wednesday that U.S. sales in August slumped 24.9% to 185,176 vehicles from 246,479 in August 2009. Note: in August 2009 U.S. light vehicle sales were 14.1…

Note: the ISM PMI increased to 56.3 from 55.5 in July (I’ll have more later). Overall construction spending decreased in July. Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. From the Census…

ADP reports : Private sector employment decreased by 10,000 from July to August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from June to July was revised down slightly, from the previously reported increase of 42,000 to an…