Case-Shiller House Price Seasonal Adjustment and Comparison to Stress Tests
Case-Shiller released the May house price index this morning, and most news reports focused on the small increase, not seasonally adjusted (NSA), from April to May. As I noted earlier, the seasonally adjusted (SA) data showed a small price decline from April to May. Case-Shiller reported that prices fell at a 2.5% annual rate in May (SA). However I think the seasonal factor might be insufficient during the current period. The following graph shows the month-to-month change of the Case-Shiller index for both the NSA and SA data (annualized). Note that Case-Shiller uses a three-month moving average to smooth the data. Click on graph for larger image in new window. The Blue line is the NSA data.
Read more here – Case-Shiller House Price Seasonal Adjustment and Comparison to Stress Tests
